17 January, 2020 (16:00:00 EST)

Australia Treasury 10-Year bond rises for a third consecutive day, a three-day rise of 0.7% [Implied Yield rises to 1.178%]


Australia Treasury 10-Year bond, has risen 4.60c (or 0.04%) for a third consecutive day on Friday bringing its three-day rise to 76.80c or 0.7%. The bond last traded at $A114.50. The bond matures in 9 years and 10 months; its Yield to Maturity (YTM) has increased by 1.0 basis points from 1.17% to 1.178%.
Australia 10-Year1-day1-week1-month3-months1-year
Price Change %0.040.60.31.1610.02
YTM change (%)0.864.620.096.5148.87

THE PAST WEEK
Australia 10-Year bond was up $A1.24 or 1.1% in the past week. Yield to maturity dropped 8.0 basis points from 1.25% a week ago to 1.17%.
DayHeadlineYTM %Close price [AUD]Price change %Comment
Thursday10-Year bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 0.6% [Implied Yield falls to 1.168%]1.17114.460.2Price rise on beating relative strength
Wednesday10-Year bond rises on high volatility [Implied Yield falls to 1.176%]1.18114.280.5Top Rise
Tuesday10-Year bond YTM decreases by 1.3 basis points1.22113.74-0.1Price fall on slipping relative strength
Friday10-Year bond falls for a second consecutive day, a two-day fall of 0.6% [Implied Yield falls to 1.235%]1.24113.83-0.2Price fall on slipping relative strength
Thursday10-Year bond YTM increases by 6.0 basis points1.25114.01-0.5Steepest Fall

TOP RISE AND STEEPEST FALL IN THE PAST MONTH
Yield-to-maturity fluctuated between a low of 1.25% and a high of 1.31% in the past month.
DayHeadlineYTM %Close price [AUD]Price change %Comment
Friday10-Year bond rises on high volatility [Implied Yield falls to 1.245%]1.25113.761.0Top Rise
ThursdayBond yield in 2nd consecutive rise, nears two-month high of 1.309%1.31113.67-0.7Steepest Fall

AUSTRALIA TREASURY - OTHER MATURITIES
Yield-to-maturity varies between a low of 0.74% for the 3-Year bond to 1.27% for the 15-Year bond.
HeadlineYTM %Close price [AUD]Price change %
3-Year bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 0.1% [Implied Yield falls to 0.744%]0.74104.170.03
2-Year bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 0.1% [Implied Yield falls to 0.77%]0.77102.30.01
4-Year bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 0.1% [Implied Yield falls to 0.77%]0.77115.10.01
1-Year bond YTM decreases by 0.8 basis points0.80100.78-0.002
5-Year bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 0.2% [Implied Yield falls to 0.815%]0.81107.970.1
6-Year bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 0.2% [Implied Yield falls to 0.886%]0.89112.040.1
7-Year bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 0.3% [Implied Yield falls to 0.953%]0.95119.850.1
8-Year bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 0.5% [Implied Yield falls to 1.066%]1.07112.490.1
9-Year bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 0.6% [Implied Yield falls to 1.133%]1.13113.390.1
12-Year bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 0.8% [Implied Yield 1.226%]1.23102.760.2
15-Year bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 0.8% [Implied Yield falls to 1.274%]1.27138.910.2



Maturity
IssuerAustralia
Maturity DateNovember 21, 2029

AUSTRALIA 10-YEAR BULLISH SIGNALS

Price Dynamics:
+ The present value of $A1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Australia 10-Year is $A1,100, for a capital gain of $A100.
PV$10001-week1-month1-year
Australia 10-Year.AU1,0069971,100

AUSTRALIA 10-YEAR BEARISH SIGNALS

Price Dynamics:
+ The price decreased 0.3% in the past month.

Overbought/Bearish/Resistance Signals:
+ The bond is overbought according to the Williams % R indicator of -13.7, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day high of $A114.87.

Low Performance Indicator:
DescriptionValueRank In Sovereign Bond Market
Price/MAP2000.98In Bottom Quartile

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

Price Dynamics:
+ Australia 10-Year bond is at a discount of 6.3% to its 12-month high of $A122.23 on August 16, 2019. It is also at a premium of 10.6% to the 12-month low of $A103.50 on January 21, 2019.
+ The present value of AUD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Australia Treasury 10-Year is $A1,080, for a capital gain of $A80.
+ 5 years Multiplier in AUD = 1.08x
+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in AUD = 1.6%
Present Value of USD1,000 invested 5 years ago:
+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Australia Treasury 10-Year is $US839, for a capital loss of $US161.
+ 5 years ago AUD 1 equalled USD 0.8876
+ 5 years Multiplier in USD = 0.839x
+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = -3.4%
Jan 17, 2020: AUD 1 equals USD 0.6896

PERFORMANCE RANK
+ The 10-Year bond yield is ranked 26 out of 36 countries in the global sovereign bond index.
The table below shows today's 10-Year Bond Yield in %, current inflation rate in % and real rate of interest(%).
RankCountry10-Yr BondInflationReal Rate
1Kenya12.294.057.922
2Pakistan11.2912.42-1.002
3South Africa8.183.64.421
4Mexico7.022.834.076
5Indonesia6.932.724.097
6Brazil6.824.312.403
7India6.627.35-0.678
8Russia6.183.03.092
9Colombia5.833.81.961
10Philippines4.822.52.264
11Malaysia3.310.92.39
12Chile3.243.00.233
13China3.144.5-1.301
14Vietnam2.85.23-2.313
15Qatar2.63.5-0.869
16Poland2.333.4-1.04
17Hungary2.151.80.349
18United States1.822.3-0.464
19South Korea1.750.71.038
20Singapore1.730.61.119
21Czech Republic1.693.2-1.467
22Canada1.572.2-0.62
23Thailand1.450.870.57
24Norway1.411.40.01
25Italy1.370.50.866
26Australia1.181.7-0.513
27Israel0.90.60.296
28United Kingdom0.631.3-0.663
29Taiwan0.591.13-0.536
30Spain0.460.8-0.339
31Portugal0.390.4-0.011
32Bulgaria0.282.0-1.691
33Ireland0.051.1-1.038
34France0.041.5-1.436
35Belgium0.020.76-0.731
36Japan0.010.5-0.489

MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS: AUSTRALIA

IndicatorValue
GDP (USD Billion)1,432
GDP growth yoy (%)1.7
Interest rate (%)0.75
Inflation rate (%)1.7
Public debt (USD) (billion)400.9
Public debt per person (USD)16,819
Total annual debt change (%)0.5
Debt to GDP (%)40.7
Budget Deficit to GDP (%)0.6
CAD to GDP (%)1.5
Unemployment rate (%)5.2
Population (million)23.9

CREDIT RATING SUMMARY
Australia:
Rating AgencyLong TermForeign CurrencyDescription
Moody'sAaa  
S&PAAA Extremely strong capacity to meet financial commitments. Highest Rating.
FITCHAAA Highest credit quality: 'AAA' ratings denote the lowest expectation of default risk. This capacity is highly unlikely to be adversely affected by foreseeable events.
DAGONG AA+"AA" ratings denote expectations of very low default risk. It indicates that the issuer has a very strong capacity for payment of financial commitments. Although due to its relatively higher long-term risk, this capacity is not significantly vulnerable to any foreseeable event. The plus (+) sign shows relative standing within the major rating category.


Source: www.BuySellSignals.com