13 September, 2019 (16:00:00 EST)
Australia 10-Year bond yield in 4th consecutive rise, nears five-month high of 1.229%
Australia Treasury 10-Year bond yield, extended its rises Friday, rising an additional 6.22% to trade at 1.229%. The bond yield rose by 1.5 basis points on Wednesday and 1.4 basis points on Thursday bringing its 4-day rise to 14.8 basis points. The yield is now approaching its five-month high of 1.229%.
|Price Change %||0.1||0.8||5.1||1.51||18.74|
|YTM change (%)||6.22||14.54||25.92||12.96||52.86|
THE PAST WEEK
Australia 10-Year bond was up $A1.24 or 1.1% in the past week. Yield to maturity rose 9.0 basis points from 1.07% a week ago to 1.16%.
|Day||Headline||YTM %||Close price [AUD]||Price change %||Comment|
|Thursday||Australia 10-Year bond yield in 4th consecutive rise, nears five-month high of 1.157%||1.16||115.25||-0.3||Price fall on falling relative strength|
|Wednesday||Australia 10-Year bond yield in 3rd consecutive rise, nears five-month high of 1.143%||1.14||115.58||-0.3||Price fall on falling relative strength|
|Tuesday||10-Year bond drops to four-month low [Implied Yield rises to 1.128%]||1.13||115.98||-0.5||Price fall on falling relative strength|
|Monday||10-Year bond price rises 0.7% from 14-day low [Implied Yield rises to 1.081%]||1.08||116.57||0.4||Top Rise|
|Friday||Australia 10-Year in 2nd consecutive fall, nears four-month low [Implied Yield falls to 1.073%]||1.07||116.07||-3.9||Steepest Fall|
TOP RISE AND STEEPEST FALL IN THE PAST MONTH
Yield-to-maturity fluctuated between a low of 0.94% and a high of 1.07% in the past month.
|Day||Headline||YTM %||Close price [AUD]||Price change %||Comment|
|Friday||In 2nd consecutive fall, nears four-month low [Implied Yield falls to 1.073%]||1.07||116.07||-3.9||Steepest Fall|
|Monday||10-Year bond increases 0.7%||0.94||121.75||0.7||Top Rise|
AUSTRALIA TREASURY - OTHER MATURITIES
Yield-to-maturity varies between a low of 0.88% for the 3-Year bond to 1.27% for the 15-Year bond.
|Headline||YTM %||Close price [AUD]||Price change %|
|3-Year in 3rd consecutive fall, nears eight-month low [Implied Yield rises to 0.88%]||0.88||104.28||-0.1|
|4-Year in 3rd consecutive fall, nears five-month low [Implied Yield rises to 0.899%]||0.90||116.3||-0.1|
|5-Year bond yield in 4th consecutive rise, nears two-month high of 0.907%||0.91||108.34||-0.1|
|2-Year in 11th consecutive fall, nears eight-month low [Implied Yield rises to 0.921%]||0.92||107.97||-0.1|
|1-Year in 3rd consecutive fall, nears a 12-month low [Implied Yield rises to 0.949%]||0.95||100.94||-0.03|
|6-Year bond falls for a third consecutive day, a three-day fall of 0.4% [Implied Yield rises to 0.963%]||0.96||112.48||-0.1|
|7-Year bond falls for a third consecutive day, a three-day fall of 0.6% [Implied Yield rises to 1.03%]||1.03||120.52||-0.1|
|8-Year bond falls for a third consecutive day, a three-day fall of 0.9% [Implied Yield rises to 1.117%]||1.12||112.79||-0.2|
|9-Year bond falls for a third consecutive day, a three-day fall of 1.0% [Implied Yield rises to 1.158%]||1.16||113.87||-0.2|
|12-Year bond yield in 4th consecutive rise, nears nine-month high of 1.193%||1.19||103.37||-0.3|
|15-Year bond yield in 4th consecutive rise, nears two-month high of 1.267%||1.27||140.32||-0.3|
|Maturity Date||April 21, 2029|
AUSTRALIA 10-YEAR BEARISH SIGNALS
Downtrend [or Yield Uptrend]: The bond decreased, falling for a fourth consecutive day.
+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 117.7 minus the 26-day EMA of 118.91 is negative 1.21 suggesting a bearish signal. Both EMA prices are falling, another bearish signal.
+ Falls to Rises in the past month: the number of falls outnumbered rises 15:9 or 1.7:1. The bond traded in 24 of the 23 trading days.
Low Performance Indicator:
|Description||Value||Rank In Sovereign Bond Market|
|Price/MAP50||0.97||In Bottom 5%|
AUSTRALIA 10-YEAR BULLISH SIGNALS
+ The 5.8% discount to 12-month high of $A122.23 against the 20.5% premium to 12-month low of $A95.49 suggests the bond continues to push for new highs.
+ In the last three months the bond has hit a new 52-week high fifteen times, pointing to a significant uptrend.
+ The present value of $A1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Australia 10-Year is $A1,187, for a capital gain of $A187.
+ The present value of AUD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Australia Treasury 10-Year is $A1,239, for a capital gain of $A239.
+ 5 years Multiplier in AUD = 1.239x
+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in AUD = 4.4%
Present Value of USD1,000 invested 5 years ago:
+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Australia Treasury 10-Year is $US942, for a capital loss of $US58.
+ 5 years ago AUD 1 equalled USD 0.9047
+ 5 years Multiplier in USD = 0.942x
+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = -1.2%
Sep 13, 2019: AUD 1 equals USD 0.6879
+ The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 12.3 has breached the oversold line of 30, suggesting the price decrease of 5.3% in the last 14 days is unusually high.
+ The bond is oversold according to the Williams % R indicator of -91.7, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day low of $A114.46.
+ The Stochastic indicator of 6.6 has pierced the oversold line of 20; this indicates the price is close to its 14-day low and is likely to revert to an uptrend.
+ The 10-Year bond yield is ranked 25 out of 33 countries in the global sovereign bond index.
The table below shows today's 10-Year Bond Yield in %, current inflation rate in % and real rate of interest(%).
|Rank||Country||10-Yr Bond||Inflation||Real Rate|
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS: AUSTRALIA
| GDP (USD Billion)||1,432|
| GDP growth yoy (%)||1.8|
| Interest rate (%)||1.0|
| Inflation rate (%)||1.6|
| Public debt (USD) (billion)||400.9|
| Public debt per person (USD)||16,819|
| Total annual debt change (%)||0.5|
| Debt to GDP (%)||40.7|
| Budget Deficit to GDP (%)||0.6|
| CAD to GDP (%)||1.5|
| Unemployment rate (%)||5.2|
| Population (million)||23.9|
CREDIT RATING SUMMARY
|Rating Agency||Long Term||Foreign Currency||Description|
|Moody's||Aaa|| || |
|S&P||AAA|| ||Extremely strong capacity to meet financial commitments. Highest Rating.|
|FITCH||AAA|| ||Highest credit quality: 'AAA' ratings denote the lowest expectation of default risk. This capacity is highly unlikely to be adversely affected by foreseeable events.|
|DAGONG|| ||AA+||"AA" ratings denote expectations of very low default risk. It indicates that the issuer has a very strong capacity for payment of financial commitments. Although due to its relatively higher long-term risk, this capacity is not significantly vulnerable to any foreseeable event. The plus (+) sign shows relative standing within the major rating category.|