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13 September, 2019 (16:00:00 EST)

Australia 10-Year bond yield in 4th consecutive rise, nears five-month high of 1.229%


Australia Treasury 10-Year bond yield, extended its rises Friday, rising an additional 6.22% to trade at 1.229%. The bond yield rose by 1.5 basis points on Wednesday and 1.4 basis points on Thursday bringing its 4-day rise to 14.8 basis points. The yield is now approaching its five-month high of 1.229%.
Australia 10-Year1-day1-week1-month3-months1-year
Price Change %0.10.85.11.5118.74
YTM change (%)6.2214.5425.9212.9652.86

THE PAST WEEK
Australia 10-Year bond was up $A1.24 or 1.1% in the past week. Yield to maturity rose 9.0 basis points from 1.07% a week ago to 1.16%.
DayHeadlineYTM %Close price [AUD]Price change %Comment
ThursdayAustralia 10-Year bond yield in 4th consecutive rise, nears five-month high of 1.157%1.16115.25-0.3Price fall on falling relative strength
WednesdayAustralia 10-Year bond yield in 3rd consecutive rise, nears five-month high of 1.143%1.14115.58-0.3Price fall on falling relative strength
Tuesday10-Year bond drops to four-month low [Implied Yield rises to 1.128%]1.13115.98-0.5Price fall on falling relative strength
Monday10-Year bond price rises 0.7% from 14-day low [Implied Yield rises to 1.081%]1.08116.570.4Top Rise
FridayAustralia 10-Year in 2nd consecutive fall, nears four-month low [Implied Yield falls to 1.073%]1.07116.07-3.9Steepest Fall

TOP RISE AND STEEPEST FALL IN THE PAST MONTH
Yield-to-maturity fluctuated between a low of 0.94% and a high of 1.07% in the past month.
DayHeadlineYTM %Close price [AUD]Price change %Comment
FridayIn 2nd consecutive fall, nears four-month low [Implied Yield falls to 1.073%]1.07116.07-3.9Steepest Fall
Monday10-Year bond increases 0.7%0.94121.750.7Top Rise

AUSTRALIA TREASURY - OTHER MATURITIES
Yield-to-maturity varies between a low of 0.88% for the 3-Year bond to 1.27% for the 15-Year bond.
HeadlineYTM %Close price [AUD]Price change %
3-Year in 3rd consecutive fall, nears eight-month low [Implied Yield rises to 0.88%]0.88104.28-0.1
4-Year in 3rd consecutive fall, nears five-month low [Implied Yield rises to 0.899%]0.90116.3-0.1
5-Year bond yield in 4th consecutive rise, nears two-month high of 0.907%0.91108.34-0.1
2-Year in 11th consecutive fall, nears eight-month low [Implied Yield rises to 0.921%]0.92107.97-0.1
1-Year in 3rd consecutive fall, nears a 12-month low [Implied Yield rises to 0.949%]0.95100.94-0.03
6-Year bond falls for a third consecutive day, a three-day fall of 0.4% [Implied Yield rises to 0.963%]0.96112.48-0.1
7-Year bond falls for a third consecutive day, a three-day fall of 0.6% [Implied Yield rises to 1.03%]1.03120.52-0.1
8-Year bond falls for a third consecutive day, a three-day fall of 0.9% [Implied Yield rises to 1.117%]1.12112.79-0.2
9-Year bond falls for a third consecutive day, a three-day fall of 1.0% [Implied Yield rises to 1.158%]1.16113.87-0.2
12-Year bond yield in 4th consecutive rise, nears nine-month high of 1.193%1.19103.37-0.3
15-Year bond yield in 4th consecutive rise, nears two-month high of 1.267%1.27140.32-0.3



Maturity
IssuerAustralia
Maturity DateApril 21, 2029

AUSTRALIA 10-YEAR BEARISH SIGNALS

Price Dynamics:
Downtrend [or Yield Uptrend]: The bond decreased, falling for a fourth consecutive day.
+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 117.7 minus the 26-day EMA of 118.91 is negative 1.21 suggesting a bearish signal. Both EMA prices are falling, another bearish signal.
+ Falls to Rises in the past month: the number of falls outnumbered rises 15:9 or 1.7:1. The bond traded in 24 of the 23 trading days.

Low Performance Indicator:
DescriptionValueRank In Sovereign Bond Market
Price/MAP500.97In Bottom 5%

AUSTRALIA 10-YEAR BULLISH SIGNALS

Price Dynamics:
+ The 5.8% discount to 12-month high of $A122.23 against the 20.5% premium to 12-month low of $A95.49 suggests the bond continues to push for new highs.
+ In the last three months the bond has hit a new 52-week high fifteen times, pointing to a significant uptrend.
+ The present value of $A1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Australia 10-Year is $A1,187, for a capital gain of $A187.
PV$10001-week1-month1-year
Australia 10-Year.AU9929491,187
+ The present value of AUD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Australia Treasury 10-Year is $A1,239, for a capital gain of $A239.
+ 5 years Multiplier in AUD = 1.239x
+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in AUD = 4.4%
Present Value of USD1,000 invested 5 years ago:
+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Australia Treasury 10-Year is $US942, for a capital loss of $US58.
+ 5 years ago AUD 1 equalled USD 0.9047
+ 5 years Multiplier in USD = 0.942x
+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = -1.2%
Sep 13, 2019: AUD 1 equals USD 0.6879

Oversold/Bullish/Support Signals:
+ The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 12.3 has breached the oversold line of 30, suggesting the price decrease of 5.3% in the last 14 days is unusually high.
+ The bond is oversold according to the Williams % R indicator of -91.7, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day low of $A114.46.
+ The Stochastic indicator of 6.6 has pierced the oversold line of 20; this indicates the price is close to its 14-day low and is likely to revert to an uptrend.

PERFORMANCE RANK
+ The 10-Year bond yield is ranked 25 out of 33 countries in the global sovereign bond index.
The table below shows today's 10-Year Bond Yield in %, current inflation rate in % and real rate of interest(%).
RankCountry10-Yr BondInflationReal Rate
1Pakistan13.210.32.627
2Kenya11.54.057.16
3South Africa8.144.03.981
4Brazil7.423.224.064
5Mexico7.253.783.344
6Indonesia7.23.323.758
7Russia7.04.62.294
8India6.633.153.375
9Colombia5.883.792.014
10Philippines4.742.42.289
11Vietnam3.982.261.686
12Malaysia3.351.41.928
13China3.092.80.286
14Chile2.82.20.587
15Qatar2.663.5-0.815
16Hungary2.151.80.344
17Poland2.142.8-0.643
18United States1.91.80.099
19Singapore1.760.41.351
20Thailand1.610.980.629
21Canada1.512.0-0.478
22South Korea1.40.60.797
23Czech Republic1.392.9-1.464
24Norway1.361.9-0.528
25Australia1.231.6-0.365
26Israel1.020.50.516
27Italy0.870.50.368
28United Kingdom0.762.1-1.31
29Taiwan0.710.40.309
30Bulgaria0.422.0-1.544
31Spain0.330.30.029
32Portugal0.320.4-0.081
33Ireland0.070.5-0.433

MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS: AUSTRALIA

IndicatorValue
GDP (USD Billion)1,432
GDP growth yoy (%)1.8
Interest rate (%)1.0
Inflation rate (%)1.6
Public debt (USD) (billion)400.9
Public debt per person (USD)16,819
Total annual debt change (%)0.5
Debt to GDP (%)40.7
Budget Deficit to GDP (%)0.6
CAD to GDP (%)1.5
Unemployment rate (%)5.2
Population (million)23.9

CREDIT RATING SUMMARY
Australia:
Rating AgencyLong TermForeign CurrencyDescription
Moody'sAaa  
S&PAAA Extremely strong capacity to meet financial commitments. Highest Rating.
FITCHAAA Highest credit quality: 'AAA' ratings denote the lowest expectation of default risk. This capacity is highly unlikely to be adversely affected by foreseeable events.
DAGONG AA+"AA" ratings denote expectations of very low default risk. It indicates that the issuer has a very strong capacity for payment of financial commitments. Although due to its relatively higher long-term risk, this capacity is not significantly vulnerable to any foreseeable event. The plus (+) sign shows relative standing within the major rating category.


Source: www.BuySellSignals.com